FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

298.21 – 575.56

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

363 – 658

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.4 ±10.4

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 78.19Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 127.97Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 92.05Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.9 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 167.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 182.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 226.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2852, 10554, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2852, 10554, 8089

Auto

42.6 14%

Teleop

155.5 52%

Endgame

98.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9098, 2935, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9098, 2935, 610

Auto

107.0 19%

Teleop

324.7 56%

Endgame

143.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score298.2pts

Blue projected score575.6pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -277.3
Score range: 250–624
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1021 vs event baseline 264.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.4Season APEX603.9

42.6Auto107

155.5Teleop324.7

98.1Endgame143.4

12Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	53
teleop	244	364
endgame	43	226
foul	5	15
total	363	658

Result

Final score

363 – 658

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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