FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.11 – 260.67

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 89.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238 ±10.4

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 48.65Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 30.13Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 20.33Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.5 ±9.8

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX -11.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 183.35Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 88.59Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 5719, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1229, 5719, 10611

Auto

7.4 8%

Teleop

38.7 43%

Endgame

44.0 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5408, 9785, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5408, 9785, 781

Auto

74.1 28%

Teleop

124.8 48%

Endgame

62.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score260.7pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.6
Score range: 51–309
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 264.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238Season APEX503.5

7.4Auto74.1

38.7Teleop124.8

44Endgame62.7

10Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	71
teleop	30	230
endgame	2	109
foul	5	0
total	69	410

Result

Final score

69 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 89.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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