FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.2 – 226.84

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.4 ±10.4

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 19.73Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 70.22Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 116.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.5 ±9.3

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 63.05Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 97.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 66.5Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 4688, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3543, 4688, 1310

Auto

49.1 24%

Teleop

106.3 52%

Endgame

47.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3739, 11270, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3739, 11270, 188

Auto

40.2 18%

Teleop

125.4 57%

Endgame

53.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score206.2pts

Blue projected score226.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.6
Score range: 158–275
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 265.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.4Season APEX593.5

49.1Auto40.2

106.3Teleop125.4

47.8Endgame53.6

33Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	61
teleop	101	88
endgame	49	17
foul	0	0
total	196	166

Result

Final score

196 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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