FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.43 – 414.29

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264 ±9.8

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 55.03Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 70.36Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 29.04Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.2 ±11.2

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 287.08Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 12.99Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 114.22Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4951, 2013, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4951, 2013, 9589

Auto

43.6 28%

Teleop

49.6 32%

Endgame

62.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1241, 8789, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1241, 8789, 4152

Auto

48.7 12%

Teleop

230.8 57%

Endgame

128.4 31%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score414.3pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259.9
Score range: 106–462
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 266.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264Season APEX621.2

43.6Auto48.7

49.6Teleop230.8

62.4Endgame128.4

40Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	40
teleop	26	270
endgame	18	86
foul	0	5
total	86	401

Result

Final score

86 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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