FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.97 – 138.3

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±9.8

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 93.51Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 118.98Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 103.48Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±11

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 21.46Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 63.22Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 53.62Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7480, 8884, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

316 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7480, 8884, 6978

Auto

67.2 21%

Teleop

189.3 60%

Endgame

60.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9782, 4917, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9782, 4917, 8729

Auto

26.4 21%

Teleop

64.0 51%

Endgame

35.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score316pts

Blue projected score138.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.7
Score range: 90–364
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 266.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.6Season APEX240.9

67.2Auto26.4

189.3Teleop64

60.1Endgame35.5

82Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	29
teleop	199	93
endgame	72	41
foul	5	0
total	352	163

Result

Final score

352 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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