FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.4 – 180.5

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.3 ±10.4

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 38.76Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 90.54Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 190.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±9.8

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 80.32Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 65.26Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 34.92Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9062, 8089, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9062, 8089, 2702

Auto

71.1 23%

Teleop

171.0 54%

Endgame

72.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 5885, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2852, 5885, 8349

Auto

39.4 22%

Teleop

107.5 59%

Endgame

34.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score319.4pts

Blue projected score180.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.9
Score range: 133–367
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 266.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.3Season APEX298.5

71.1Auto39.4

171Teleop107.5

72.5Endgame34.4

40Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	27
teleop	198	85
endgame	43	48
foul	15	0
total	317	160

Result

Final score

317 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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