FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.86 – 241.42

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

475 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.1 ±9.8

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 178.04Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 34.58Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 212.24Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.9 ±10.4

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 47.37Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 169.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 24.11Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2935, 2634, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2935, 2634, 7558

Auto

62.3 15%

Teleop

240.1 57%

Endgame

119.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6632, 9098, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6632, 9098, 771

Auto

46.5 19%

Teleop

123.0 51%

Endgame

69.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score424.9pts

Blue projected score241.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183.4
Score range: 193–473
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 265.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.1Season APEX326.9

62.3Auto46.5

240.1Teleop123

119.5Endgame69.5

94Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	50
teleop	317	93
endgame	67	63
foul	5	0
total	475	206

Result

Final score

475 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.