FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.04 – 179.27

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.4 ±10.4

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 91.38Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 20.94Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 31.72Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.1 ±10.4

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 141.46Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 5.21Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 32.6Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 781, 6865, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 781, 6865, 5719

Auto

36.6 26%

Teleop

71.1 50%

Endgame

34.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5024, 854, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5024, 854, 5031

Auto

35.9 20%

Teleop

106.0 60%

Endgame

34.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score144pts

Blue projected score179.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: 96–227
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 266.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.4Season APEX301.1

36.6Auto35.9

71.1Teleop106

34.2Endgame34.3

63Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	53
teleop	53	180
endgame	56	49
foul	0	15
total	135	297

Result

Final score

135 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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