FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.44 – 293.33

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.1 ±9.8

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 18.44Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 75.85Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 272.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.4 ±10.5

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 228.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 13.25Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 51.47Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 5032, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10611, 5032, 4946

Auto

86.5 23%

Teleop

194.1 52%

Endgame

92.3 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 11002, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 610, 11002, 2609

Auto

69.7 25%

Teleop

171.5 61%

Endgame

42.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score366.4pts

Blue projected score293.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.1
Score range: 245–414
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 265.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.1Season APEX364.4

86.5Auto69.7

194.1Teleop171.5

92.3Endgame42

75Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	62
teleop	193	170
endgame	103	29
foul	20	0
total	419	261

Result

Final score

419 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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