FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

548.28 – 285.74

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 81 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 766.2 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 294.21Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 147.85Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 106.22Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.3 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 109.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 42.89Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 133.76Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 3683, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

548.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1241, 3683, 4039

Auto

75.2 14%

Teleop

348.9 64%

Endgame

122.3 22%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 10167, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11270, 10167, 10554

Auto

47.4 16%

Teleop

150.7 52%

Endgame

91.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score548.3pts

Blue projected score285.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 262.5
Score range: 238–596
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 672 vs event baseline 264.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

766.2Season APEX464.3

75.2Auto47.4

348.9Teleop150.7

122.3Endgame91

104Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	48
teleop	220	124
endgame	206	32
foul	5	5
total	463	209

Result

Final score

463 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 81 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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