FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.07 – 253.97

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 90.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±10.4

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 131.28Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 130.75Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 80.04Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±10.4

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 72.46Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 94.55Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 86.96Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 4152, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4152, 5885

Auto

67.3 20%

Teleop

193.9 57%

Endgame

81.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4917, 7480, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

254 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4917, 7480, 2852

Auto

39.6 16%

Teleop

151.5 61%

Endgame

57.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score342.1pts

Blue projected score254pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 206–390
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 265.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX323.8

67.3Auto39.6

193.9Teleop151.5

81.9Endgame57.6

22Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	24
teleop	87	119
endgame	34	51
foul	20	5
total	216	199

Result

Final score

216 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 90.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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