FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.93 – 244.09

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 407

Prediction missed · off by 95.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.3 ±10.4

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 51.99Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 50.97Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 170.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503 ±10.5

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 55.45Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 187.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.29Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 4951, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1229, 4951, 9098

Auto

45.3 17%

Teleop

128.5 48%

Endgame

94.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4688, 7558, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4688, 7558, 9782

Auto

34.1 14%

Teleop

158.7 66%

Endgame

49.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273.9pts

Blue projected score244.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.8
Score range: 196–322
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 264.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.3Season APEX503

45.3Auto34.1

128.5Teleop158.7

94.1Endgame49

23Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	66
teleop	127	245
endgame	69	96
foul	5	0
total	246	407

Result

Final score

246 – 407

Prediction missed · off by 95.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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