FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.14 – 166.55

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±10.4

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 80.16Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 169.66Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 36.32Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 45.31Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 86.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 34.33Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 781, 2935, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 781, 2935, 6632

Auto

51.4 18%

Teleop

128.3 46%

Endgame

98.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 2013, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 2013, 3543

Auto

40.0 24%

Teleop

76.3 46%

Endgame

48.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score286.1pts

Blue projected score166.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.6
Score range: 119–334
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.8Season APEX268.7

51.4Auto40

128.3Teleop76.3

98.6Endgame48.5

32Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	9
teleop	187	41
endgame	76	20
foul	0	0
total	347	70

Result

Final score

347 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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