FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.85 – 279.06

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 95.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.8 ±11.7

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 76.85Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 122.66Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX -1.66Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±10.4

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 201.65Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 53.69Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 23.72Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6978, 5024, 8789

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6978, 5024, 8789

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

115.4 58%

Endgame

57.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2702, 2609, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2702, 2609, 10611

Auto

40.5 14%

Teleop

166.7 59%

Endgame

75.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score197.9pts

Blue projected score279.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.2
Score range: 150–327
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 264.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.8Season APEX437.6

25.5Auto40.5

115.4Teleop166.7

57Endgame75.1

111Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	73
teleop	178	106
endgame	98	38
foul	0	0
total	326	217

Result

Final score

326 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 95.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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