FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

391.67 – 421.36

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

261 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 100 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598.9 ±9.3

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 27.16Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 280.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 83.67Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779 ±9.3

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 128.67Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 183.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 108.94Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 854, 4946, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 854, 4946, 188

Auto

77.9 20%

Teleop

216.6 56%

Endgame

89.6 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 9785, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8884, 9785, 4039

Auto

108.2 26%

Teleop

240.9 57%

Endgame

73.1 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score391.7pts

Blue projected score421.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 344–469
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 264.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598.9Season APEX779

77.9Auto108.2

216.6Teleop240.9

89.6Endgame73.1

65Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	92
teleop	90	217
endgame	62	38
foul	25	5
total	261	352

Result

Final score

261 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 100 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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