FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.18 – 124.85

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 91.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±10.4

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 42.46Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 36.36Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 58.36Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.9 ±11

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -7.04Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 45.5Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 86.39Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10167, 6865, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10167, 6865, 2634

Auto

31.1 23%

Teleop

69.8 51%

Endgame

36.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11002, 3739, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11002, 3739, 8089

Auto

34.8 31%

Teleop

52.2 46%

Endgame

26.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score137.2pts

Blue projected score124.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 77–185
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 266.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.9Season APEX306.9

31.1Auto34.8

69.8Teleop52.2

36Endgame26.2

102Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	54
teleop	13	159
endgame	24	9
foul	0	0
total	51	222

Result

Final score

51 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 91.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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