FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.45 – 218.01

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.1 ±11

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 13.12Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 29.69Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 37.64Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±10.4

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 10.89Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 16.03Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 191.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11002, 10167, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11002, 10167, 9062

Auto

17.3 23%

Teleop

44.2 59%

Endgame

13.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 10611, 2935

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 854, 10611, 2935

Auto

44.9 21%

Teleop

96.3 46%

Endgame

69.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score218pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.6
Score range: 28–270
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 287.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.1Season APEX328.6

17.3Auto44.9

44.2Teleop96.3

13.5Endgame69

55Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	8	124
endgame	7	87
foul	5	0
total	40	230

Result

Final score

40 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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