FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.17 – 388.24

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.9 ±10.4

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX -29.18Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 50.92Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 64.43Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.9 ±9.3

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 24.37Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 223.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 140.51Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5408, 8729, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5408, 8729, 5032

Auto

18.7 23%

Teleop

13.3 16%

Endgame

49.4 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9589, 610, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9589, 610, 3683

Auto

81.2 21%

Teleop

217.9 57%

Endgame

83.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score86.2pts

Blue projected score388.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -302.1
Score range: 38–436
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 265.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.9Season APEX473.9

18.7Auto81.2

13.3Teleop217.9

49.4Endgame83.8

56Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	76
teleop	76	272
endgame	58	78
foul	0	10
total	167	436

Result

Final score

167 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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