FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.15 – 243.16

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.8 ±10.4

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 60.12Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 46.23Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 38.8Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.4 ±10.4

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 50.72Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 29.95Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 162.49Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4688, 5031, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4688, 5031, 771

Auto

16.5 11%

Teleop

110.4 76%

Endgame

18.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9062, 5719, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9062, 5719, 10554

Auto

18.6 8%

Teleop

143.0 59%

Endgame

81.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score145.1pts

Blue projected score243.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98
Score range: 97–291
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 268.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.8Season APEX338.4

16.5Auto18.6

110.4Teleop143

18.1Endgame81.2

47Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	32
teleop	14	58
endgame	8	45
foul	0	0
total	54	135

Result

Final score

54 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 99.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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