FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.9 – 273.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 91.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 128.22Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 140.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 39.86Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.8 ±9.8

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 79.21Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 171.51Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 22.57Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 5024, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11270, 5024, 10611

Auto

65.1 21%

Teleop

170.1 54%

Endgame

79.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 7558, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5885, 7558, 6632

Auto

45.2 17%

Teleop

148.8 57%

Endgame

66.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score308.9pts

Blue projected score273.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: 225–357
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 268.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.2Season APEX554.8

65.1Auto45.2

170.1Teleop148.8

79.3Endgame66.6

73Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	62
teleop	95	198
endgame	48	72
foul	0	0
total	184	332

Result

Final score

184 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 91.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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