FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.42 – 525.45

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

248 – 590

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±10.5

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -9.4Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 80.83Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 125.99Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 767.6 ±8.7

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 270.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 176.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 77.72Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9782, 188, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9782, 188, 1310

Auto

29.2 16%

Teleop

104.5 56%

Endgame

52.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4946, 9785, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

525.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4946, 9785, 2013

Auto

115.7 22%

Teleop

314.0 59%

Endgame

98.5 19%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score197.4pts

Blue projected score525.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -328
Score range: 149–573
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 266.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.4Season APEX767.6

29.2Auto115.7

104.5Teleop314

52.4Endgame98.5

8Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	152
teleop	105	306
endgame	78	132
foul	0	0
total	248	590

Result

Final score

248 – 590

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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