FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.93 – 225.26

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296 ±9.8

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 56.47Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 32.95Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 51.51Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.9 ±10.4

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 102.71Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 81.53Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 41.02Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 8349, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4917, 8349, 2609

Auto

26.9 20%

Teleop

101.9 77%

Endgame

4.4 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7480, 8089, 10167

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7480, 8089, 10167

Auto

56.7 25%

Teleop

110.6 50%

Endgame

55.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score140.9pts

Blue projected score225.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.3
Score range: 93–273
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 266.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296Season APEX315.9

26.9Auto56.7

101.9Teleop110.6

4.4Endgame55.6

50Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	50
teleop	123	106
endgame	39	56
foul	5	15
total	220	227

Result

Final score

220 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.