FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.15 – 292.42

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.3 ±11

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 189.15Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 7.26Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 84.74Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.3 ±9.8

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 118.96Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 44.61Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 128.85Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2935, 11002, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2935, 11002, 5032

Auto

50.1 18%

Teleop

139.2 50%

Endgame

87.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 4951, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8884, 4951, 4152

Auto

69.5 25%

Teleop

152.5 54%

Endgame

61.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.2pts

Blue projected score292.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.3
Score range: 233–340
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 267.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.3Season APEX490.3

50.1Auto69.5

139.2Teleop152.5

87.2Endgame61.6

63Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	81
teleop	55	140
endgame	25	89
foul	0	0
total	139	310

Result

Final score

139 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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