FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.22 – 159.51

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.1 ±11.7

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 11.67Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 57.13Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 31.42Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.6 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 39.92Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 109.96Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 9.63Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8789, 5031, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8789, 5031, 3543

Auto

28.9 31%

Teleop

34.7 37%

Endgame

29.5 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2634, 4039, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2634, 4039, 854

Auto

37.0 23%

Teleop

92.3 57%

Endgame

32.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score100.2pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.3
Score range: 51–209
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 270.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.1Season APEX340.6

28.9Auto37

34.7Teleop92.3

29.5Endgame32.8

76Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	44
teleop	30	86
endgame	17	65
foul	0	0
total	63	195

Result

Final score

63 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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