FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.16 – 262.04

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 486

Prediction missed · off by 206.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±9.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 153.22Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 118.24Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 62.7Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.4 ±10.4

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 44.28Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 160.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 57.04Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3683, 781, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3683, 781, 771

Auto

54.1 16%

Teleop

173.1 52%

Endgame

103.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 2702, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6978, 2702, 2852

Auto

44.7 17%

Teleop

161.8 61%

Endgame

58.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334.2pts

Blue projected score262pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.1
Score range: 213–383
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 269.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.8Season APEX478.4

54.1Auto44.7

173.1Teleop161.8

103Endgame58.9

89Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	54
teleop	78	288
endgame	20	144
foul	5	0
total	146	486

Result

Final score

146 – 486

Prediction missed · off by 206.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.