FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

449.5 – 146.71

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.4 ±9.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 167.14Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX -17.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 299.41Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.3 ±10.4

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 43.13Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 44.94Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 58.64Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 5408, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10554, 5408, 1241

Auto

45.7 10%

Teleop

250.1 56%

Endgame

154.5 34%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3739, 6865, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3739, 6865, 1229

Auto

5.6 4%

Teleop

95.4 68%

Endgame

39.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score449.5pts

Blue projected score146.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 302.8
Score range: 98–499
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.4Season APEX253.3

45.7Auto5.6

250.1Teleop95.4

154.5Endgame39.4

77Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	26
teleop	190	55
endgame	105	46
foul	0	5
total	370	132

Result

Final score

370 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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