FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.42 – 205.88

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.9 ±10.4

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 50.07Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 81.99Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 62.36Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 28.31Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 140.8Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 36.77Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8729, 781, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8729, 781, 3739

Auto

25.2 13%

Teleop

96.5 51%

Endgame

68.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 771, 10554, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 771, 10554, 4951

Auto

42.3 21%

Teleop

88.4 44%

Endgame

69.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194.4pts

Blue projected score205.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.5
Score range: 142–258
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 287.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.9Season APEX273.3

25.2Auto42.3

96.5Teleop88.4

68Endgame69

78Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	11
teleop	127	136
endgame	29	112
foul	20	0
total	206	259

Result

Final score

206 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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