FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.27 – 551

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 179.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.8 ±9.8

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 31.21Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 176.41Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 73.65Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 848.2 ±8.7

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 220.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 162.57Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 167.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 9785, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10611, 9785, 8089

Auto

72.1 26%

Teleop

152.8 55%

Endgame

54.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7558, 8884, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

551 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7558, 8884, 11270

Auto

84.7 16%

Teleop

327.6 61%

Endgame

126.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.3pts

Blue projected score551pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -269.7
Score range: 232–600
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.8Season APEX848.2

72.1Auto84.7

152.8Teleop327.6

54.4Endgame126.7

43Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	105
teleop	157	112
endgame	110	28
foul	0	5
total	340	250

Result

Final score

340 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 179.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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