FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.51 – 84.6

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.9 ±10.5

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 267.48Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.58Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 97.45Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±10.4

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 39.7Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 17.72Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 27.18Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 9782, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4946, 9782, 7480

Auto

88.6 24%

Teleop

188.2 51%

Endgame

90.9 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2609, 6632, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2609, 6632, 9062

Auto

17.9 24%

Teleop

54.4 72%

Endgame

3.6 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score366.5pts

Blue projected score84.6pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 281.9
Score range: 36–416
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 270.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.9Season APEX323

88.6Auto17.9

188.2Teleop54.4

90.9Endgame3.6

96Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	22
teleop	252	64
endgame	1	63
foul	0	0
total	352	149

Result

Final score

352 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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