FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

18.45 – 308.94

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 97.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.6 ±11.2

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -4.24Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX -9.49Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 32.18Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.6 ±10.4

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 25.61Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 133.42Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 149.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 8789, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9589, 8789, 188

Auto

14.6 100%

Teleop

-34.0 0%

Endgame

25.5 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10167, 4152, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10167, 4152, 9098

Auto

46.8 15%

Teleop

159.5 51%

Endgame

103.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score18.5pts

Blue projected score308.9pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -290.5
Score range: -31–358
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.6Season APEX408.6

14.6Auto46.8

-34Teleop159.5

25.5Endgame103.5

105Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	43
teleop	77	224
endgame	73	90
foul	0	0
total	166	357

Result

Final score

166 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 97.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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