FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.48 – 281.41

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.4 ±9.8

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 52.53Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 71.91Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 77.04Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 200.42Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 43.54Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 37.45Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6978, 771, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6978, 771, 2013

Auto

16.3 8%

Teleop

92.5 46%

Endgame

93.8 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 8349, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 610, 8349, 5031

Auto

74.3 27%

Teleop

166.4 60%

Endgame

35.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score201.5pts

Blue projected score281.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.9
Score range: 152–330
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 271.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.4Season APEX407.8

16.3Auto74.3

92.5Teleop166.4

93.8Endgame35.7

90Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	50
teleop	81	234
endgame	21	48
foul	0	0
total	140	332

Result

Final score

140 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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