FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.78 – 480.37

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

353 – 570

Prediction correct · off by 110.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.8 ±10.4

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 21.9Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 23.83Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 175.05Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 699.8 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 158.34Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 286.52Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 35.51Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3739, 3543, 2935

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3739, 3543, 2935

Auto

52.5 26%

Teleop

116.3 57%

Endgame

36.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2702, 1241, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

480.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2702, 1241, 5719

Auto

73.4 15%

Teleop

303.2 63%

Endgame

103.1 21%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.8pts

Blue projected score480.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259.6
Score range: 173–528
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 923 vs event baseline 266.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.8Season APEX699.8

52.5Auto73.4

116.3Teleop303.2

36.8Endgame103.1

72Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	74
teleop	188	375
endgame	118	116
foul	0	5
total	353	570

Result

Final score

353 – 570

Prediction correct · off by 110.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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