FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.2 – 194.93

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±10.4

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 51.99Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 41.2Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 74.01Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.2 ±10.4

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 106.96Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 43.34Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 44.63Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8729, 854, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8729, 854, 2852

Auto

17.7 11%

Teleop

87.4 54%

Endgame

57.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 2634, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5032, 2634, 1229

Auto

19.6 10%

Teleop

95.1 50%

Endgame

76.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score194.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 118–244
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 270.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.9Season APEX299.2

17.7Auto19.6

87.4Teleop95.1

57.8Endgame76.9

43Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	35
teleop	54	83
endgame	17	33
foul	5	0
total	93	151

Result

Final score

93 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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