FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.93 – 245.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±9.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 136.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 56.31Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 34.37Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.4 ±10.4

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 99.62Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 48.74Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 96.71Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3683, 4688, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3683, 4688, 6865

Auto

30.4 13%

Teleop

165.5 70%

Endgame

41.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 4917, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 781, 4917, 4039

Auto

50.8 22%

Teleop

123.3 53%

Endgame

59.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score245.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.1
Score range: 179–293
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 269.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX403.4

30.4Auto50.8

165.5Teleop123.3

41.1Endgame59.8

160Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	52
teleop	189	176
endgame	53	114
foul	0	0
total	295	342

Result

Final score

295 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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