FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.61 – 252.38

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.9 ±10.4

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 124.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 54.19Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 4.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±11

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 1.03Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 106.75Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 144.6Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 4951, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4951, 5408

Auto

45.7 26%

Teleop

54.5 31%

Endgame

75.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 11002, 5024, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11002, 5024, 10554

Auto

32.7 13%

Teleop

145.7 58%

Endgame

74.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score182.6pts

Blue projected score252.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.8
Score range: 134–301
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.9Season APEX313.6

45.7Auto32.7

54.5Teleop145.7

75Endgame74.3

33Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	61
teleop	25	208
endgame	38	101
foul	0	0
total	113	370

Result

Final score

113 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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