FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.83 – 190.24

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

576 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 228.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.9 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 145.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 28.95Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 111.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.7 ±11.7

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 20.86Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 59.4Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 109.98Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 771, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 610, 771, 11270

Auto

63.2 23%

Teleop

174.6 62%

Endgame

42.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8789, 2609, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8789, 2609, 5885

Auto

62.9 34%

Teleop

110.6 59%

Endgame

13.0 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285.8pts

Blue projected score190.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.6
Score range: 142–334
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 268.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.9Season APEX327.7

63.2Auto62.9

174.6Teleop110.6

42.9Endgame13

106Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	24
teleop	297	0
endgame	150	0
foul	0	0
total	576	24

Result

Final score

576 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 228.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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