FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

442.63 – 327.71

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

380 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 94.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 227.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 120.38Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.6 ±9.8

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 18.22Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 32.89Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 276.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2013, 7558, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2013, 7558, 7480

Auto

48.5 11%

Teleop

273.5 62%

Endgame

120.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5719, 10167, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5719, 10167, 4946

Auto

77.6 22%

Teleop

185.7 54%

Endgame

82.3 24%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score442.6pts

Blue projected score327.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.9
Score range: 280–491
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 266.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.4Season APEX452.6

48.5Auto77.6

273.5Teleop185.7

120.2Endgame82.3

76Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	65
teleop	188	227
endgame	145	75
foul	5	15
total	380	382

Result

Final score

380 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 58.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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