FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.55 – 296.43

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 90.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.2 ±10.4

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 19.94Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 25.95Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 116.66Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.6 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 114.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 78.8Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 103.34Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5719, 2634, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5719, 2634, 8089

Auto

40.4 26%

Teleop

88.8 57%

Endgame

26.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 1310, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11270, 1310, 6978

Auto

78.3 25%

Teleop

168.9 54%

Endgame

65.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score162.6pts

Blue projected score296.4pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.9
Score range: 111–348
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 287.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.2Season APEX493.6

40.4Auto78.3

88.8Teleop168.9

26.5Endgame65.2

43Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	30
teleop	108	77
endgame	35	40
foul	0	0
total	194	147

Result

Final score

194 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 90.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.