FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.21 – 250.46

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.4 ±10.4

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 39.08Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 44.63Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 72.5Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.4 ±9.8

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 171.15Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 84.92Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX -5.61Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6632, 3543, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6632, 3543, 1229

Auto

21.3 14%

Teleop

83.4 54%

Endgame

49.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 5032, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8884, 5032, 9062

Auto

51.6 21%

Teleop

114.2 46%

Endgame

81.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score250.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.2
Score range: 108–298
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.4Season APEX501.4

21.3Auto51.6

83.4Teleop114.2

49.5Endgame81.3

79Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	62
teleop	8	222
endgame	4	65
foul	45	0
total	85	349

Result

Final score

85 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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