FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

331.75 – 78.27

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 125 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 125.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 59.43Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 146.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.2 ±10.4

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 12.53Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX -11.42Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 77.16Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 854, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9098, 854, 3683

Auto

43.3 12%

Teleop

183.8 53%

Endgame

119.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 10611, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6978, 10611, 4152

Auto

-13.2 0%

Teleop

47.2 59%

Endgame

46.4 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score331.8pts

Blue projected score78.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 253.5
Score range: 30–380
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 265.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449Season APEX345.2

43.3Auto-13.2

183.8Teleop47.2

119.5Endgame46.4

107Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	47
teleop	205	172
endgame	80	95
foul	0	0
total	346	314

Result

Final score

346 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 125 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.