FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.8 – 370.25

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 129.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.7 ±9.9

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 54.62Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 19.73Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 29.45Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±10.4

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 198.18Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 66.43Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 105.64Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 188, 11002, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 188, 11002, 8349

Auto

29.1 34%

Teleop

44.4 52%

Endgame

11.1 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10554, 3739, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10554, 3739, 4917

Auto

15.2 4%

Teleop

251.0 69%

Endgame

95.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score103.8pts

Blue projected score370.3pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -266.4
Score range: 56–418
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 266.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.7Season APEX374.5

29.1Auto15.2

44.4Teleop251

11.1Endgame95.1

69Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	31
teleop	74	77
endgame	24	31
foul	20	0
total	132	139

Result

Final score

132 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 129.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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