FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.5 – 208.27

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.9 ±10.4

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 117.71Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 14.11Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 37.68Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.7 ±11

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 23.62Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 56.3Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 128.35Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8089, 9589, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8089, 9589, 4688

Auto

41.8 26%

Teleop

69.9 43%

Endgame

52.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9782, 5031, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9782, 5031, 5885

Auto

65.7 31%

Teleop

112.8 54%

Endgame

30.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score169.5pts

Blue projected score208.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.8
Score range: 121–257
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.9Season APEX292.7

41.8Auto65.7

69.9Teleop112.8

52.1Endgame30.9

123Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	34
teleop	55	62
endgame	17	25
foul	0	5
total	124	126

Result

Final score

124 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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