FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.86 – 46.31

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 172.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.6 ±9.8

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 152.48Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 67.9Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 18.48Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±10.4

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 43.84Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX -21.3Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 23.77Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 2852, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9785, 2852, 4951

Auto

77.0 32%

Teleop

128.0 54%

Endgame

33.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5024, 5408, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5024, 5408, 2634

Auto

24.2 47%

Teleop

-9.5 0%

Endgame

36.7 71%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score238.9pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.6
Score range: -2–287
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 268.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.6Season APEX296.3

77Auto24.2

128Teleop-9.5

33.3Endgame36.7

57Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	40
teleop	228	99
endgame	112	51
foul	5	10
total	431	200

Result

Final score

431 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 172.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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