FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.25 – 391.66

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 76 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.4 ±10.4

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 51.35Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX -25.56Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 92.46Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.8 ±9.8

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 52.15Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 90.61Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 248.9Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 854, 6978, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 854, 6978, 781

Auto

17.4 15%

Teleop

55.3 47%

Endgame

45.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6632, 7480, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6632, 7480, 1241

Auto

48.5 13%

Teleop

244.5 63%

Endgame

92.4 24%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score118.3pts

Blue projected score391.7pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -273.4
Score range: 70–440
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 662 vs event baseline 267.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.4Season APEX568.8

17.4Auto48.5

55.3Teleop244.5

45.4Endgame92.4

140Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	77
teleop	105	231
endgame	89	119
foul	0	0
total	235	427

Result

Final score

235 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 76 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.