FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.94 – 216.32

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.8 ±9.8

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 57.01Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 199.97Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 122.96Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±10.7

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 135.3Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 71.95Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 9.07Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8729, 7558, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8729, 7558, 9098

Auto

51.2 14%

Teleop

237.5 64%

Endgame

82.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3683, 2013, 8789

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3683, 2013, 8789

Auto

-1.9 0%

Teleop

130.7 60%

Endgame

88.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score379.9pts

Blue projected score216.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.6
Score range: 168–428
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 691 vs event baseline 264.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.8Season APEX410

51.2Auto-1.9

237.5Teleop130.7

82.7Endgame88.4

60Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	64
teleop	243	108
endgame	167	69
foul	0	0
total	450	241

Result

Final score

450 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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