FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

400.84 – 130.15

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

507 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 114 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.4 ±9.3

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 97.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 85.73Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 218.02Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352 ±11

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -1.68Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 130.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 1.6Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 1229, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11270, 1229, 4946

Auto

80.0 20%

Teleop

252.6 62%

Endgame

75.1 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 2702, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6865, 2702, 11002

Auto

47.7 36%

Teleop

69.4 53%

Endgame

14.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score400.8pts

Blue projected score130.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 270.7
Score range: 83–448
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 260.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.4Season APEX352

80Auto47.7

252.6Teleop69.4

75.1Endgame14.3

116Consistency202

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	35
teleop	282	149
endgame	111	63
foul	5	5
total	507	252

Result

Final score

507 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 114 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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