FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.69 – 210.85

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 115.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±10.4

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 23.93Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 98.68Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 67.08Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±9.8

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 87.17Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 60.36Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 63.32Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 5032, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9589, 5032, 5031

Auto

32.6 17%

Teleop

77.7 41%

Endgame

77.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 10611, 10167

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 10611, 10167

Auto

16.8 8%

Teleop

124.9 58%

Endgame

72.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.7pts

Blue projected score210.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.2
Score range: 142–259
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 266.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.2Season APEX213.2

32.6Auto16.8

77.7Teleop124.9

77.2Endgame72.9

125Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	20
teleop	36	9
endgame	42	16
foul	0	0
total	125	45

Result

Final score

125 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 115.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.