FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.37 – 198.73

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±9.8

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 60.14Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 128.01Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 124.22Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±10.4

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 129.06Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 23.32Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 46.35Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 5024, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1229, 5024, 8884

Auto

66.9 22%

Teleop

166.2 56%

Endgame

65.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4039, 9589, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4039, 9589, 7480

Auto

40.5 21%

Teleop

97.2 51%

Endgame

54.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312.4pts

Blue projected score198.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.6
Score range: 147–364
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 287.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.6Season APEX371.5

66.9Auto40.5

166.2Teleop97.2

65.7Endgame54.1

80Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	51
teleop	173	97
endgame	59	69
foul	0	0
total	292	217

Result

Final score

292 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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