FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.64 – 343.22

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.3 ±10.4

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -7.7Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 89.8Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 90.54Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±9.8

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 161.45Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 150Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 31.77Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5719, 4039, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5719, 4039, 3543

Auto

62.6 37%

Teleop

94.1 55%

Endgame

14.4 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 8089, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 610, 8089, 4951

Auto

76.8 23%

Teleop

199.7 59%

Endgame

63.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score343.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.6
Score range: 125–391
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.3Season APEX445.7

62.6Auto76.8

94.1Teleop199.7

14.4Endgame63

156Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	101
teleop	104	119
endgame	39	81
foul	0	20
total	179	321

Result

Final score

179 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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