FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.82 – 98.71

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

562 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834.5 ±8.7

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 39.14Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 148.09Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 217.59Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.8 ±10.4

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 59.35Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 6.07Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 33.29Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 188, 8884, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 188, 8884, 1241

Auto

57.4 14%

Teleop

231.6 57%

Endgame

114.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 9062, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2852, 9062, 771

Auto

3.8 4%

Teleop

37.7 39%

Endgame

55.9 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score404.8pts

Blue projected score98.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 306.1
Score range: 51–453
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 265.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834.5Season APEX273.8

57.4Auto3.8

231.6Teleop37.7

114.5Endgame55.9

146Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	23
teleop	309	47
endgame	122	28
foul	35	0
total	562	98

Result

Final score

562 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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